Why the asteroid Apophis, which will arrive in 2029, is called the "killer of the Earth"! (4 photos)

We are regularly frightened by the fall of asteroids and meteorites of various sizes, which are bound to destroy human civilization. And how many doomsdays have we experienced for other reasons in our short life on the scale of the universe?





And yet, here is another piece of news - an asteroid the size of three football fields is rushing towards the earth at a speed of 27 km per second. It was named 20 years ago - Apophis - in honor of the ancient Egyptian god personifying darkness, chaos and universal evil. But with a light hand of journalists. inflated, as usual, from a molehill, for the sake of ratings and views, it was nicknamed "the killer of the Earth". Why a killer? Because on April 13, 2029, it could crash into the Earth.

Initially, when three astronomers from the Arizona Kitt Peak Observatory discovered a previously unknown asteroid, they immediately began to calculate its trajectory. True, they had almost no data, so it turned out that the asteroid would hit the Earth with a 5% probability (5% is a high probability in astronomy). In general, with this statement, the astronomers achieved the allocation of funds for further study.

Initially, when three astronomers from the Arizona Kitt Peak Observatory discovered a previously unknown asteroid, they immediately began to calculate its trajectory. True, they had almost no data, so it turned out that the asteroid would hit the Earth with a 5% probability (5% is a high probability in astronomy). In general, with this statement, astronomers have achieved the allocation of funds for further study.



So, if Apophis hits the Earth, a huge amount of energy will be released - about 500 megatons of energy in TNT equivalent. This is 12 times more than the Tunguska meteorite, 9 times more than the power of the Tsar Bomba, and 27,000 times more powerful than the bomb dropped by the Americans on Hiroshima.

The diameter of the crater will be about 3 km, the depth is about half a kilometer. Such an impact can cause an earthquake or a tsunami. But this is not the worst thing. The main deadly factor will not be the impact of the cosmic body itself, but the dust that rises from it. It can block the Earth's surface from sunlight and, theoretically, life on the planet can disappear according to the scenario that occurred in the Cretaceous period 66 million years ago, when the dinosaurs became extinct.

Secondly, astronomers have determined that the asteroid will approach the Earth at a minimum distance of 38,000 kilometers on April 13, 2029. This, by the way, is Friday! If luck is on its side and it flies past, it will be visible to the naked eye. They also determined that Apophis approaches the Earth once every 7 years. That is, it flew near the Earth in 2022, will fly by in 2029, and then in 2036, and so on.

Then why do they talk specifically about possible risks in 2029 and not about the return of the threat in 7 years, if it passes by in 29? It's all about gravity. When an asteroid flies past our planet at such a small distance, the Earth's gravity will greatly change the asteroid's trajectory and it will never fly so close to it again. That is, the Earth's gravity will shift Apophis.





However, there is an alternative theory that the same Earth's gravity will change the asteroid's trajectory in the other direction and in 2036 it will definitely collide with the Earth. Probably, to verify this or disprove it, astronomers will ask for more money for research, and in 2030 the media will publish new headlines about the "end of the world".

The latest studies of Apophis say that the probability of its collision with the Earth is 1 in 250,000. This is a much lower probability than the initially announced 5%, but still not zero. So scientists have even sketched out a plan for the asteroid's flight through the Earth's atmosphere. Through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, the Isthmus of Panama, the Atlantic and Africa.



Scientists are also thinking about a plan B just in case the asteroid decides to ram the Earth. There are a lot of options. The most delusional of them is like in the movie Armageddon. The most reasonable is to change the asteroid's orbit using space tugs. There is only one "but" - they do not exist yet.

That scientists are also observing Apophis and suggest flying to it and installing a tracking beacon on it to track its trajectory and its changes as accurately as possible.

In general, at the moment about 35 thousand near-Earth (those that cross the Earth's orbit) asteroids have been discovered, which hypothetically could one day hit the Earth. And most of them are more than 30 meters in diameter. The most potentially dangerous of them are about 5.5 thousand. So the "end of the world" announced by the media in 2029 will clearly not be the last.

On the positive side, the story of Apophis has taught humanity a lot. Since no one can guarantee that an impact from another cosmic body will not happen, all developed countries have begun to actively develop a program to protect the planet from asteroids. Their main task is to build a system that will be able, if necessary, to deflect the supposed object from a given trajectory.