russian invasion of Ukraine. Chronicle for December 18-21

22 December 2023

In the early morning of February 24, 2022, Russia launched missile attacks on Ukrainian territory and launched a direct, full-scale invasion. The Ukrainian Armed Forces repel the enemy

- Artillery ammunition shortages and delays in the provision of Western security assistance will likely lead to the Ukrainian Armed Forces skimping on equipment and delaying future Ukrainian counter-offensive operations - ISW, situation at the front.

▪️AFU repelled attacks by Russian troops in the northeast and east of Kupyansk. Russian troops are trying to break through Ukrainian defenses in the area of Sinkovka and Serberyansky forestry south of Kremennaya; however, Ukrainian forces in these areas counterattack.

▪️Ukrainian forces also repelled up to 17 Russian attacks in the area of Bogdanovka, Kleshcheevka and Andreevka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut).

▪️Bad weather conditions, including thick fog and ice, continue to hamper Russian and Ukrainian ground activity in the Avdeevka area.

▪️AFU maintain positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.

The goal of the Russian troops is to attack Chasov Yar, - ISW, the situation at the front.

▪️Heavy fighting northwest of Bakhmut in the Bogdanovka area; west of Bakhmut near Ivanovsk; and southwest of Bakhmut in the area of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka.

▪️The Russian military command in the Bakhmut direction will use its most combat-ready airborne and marine units, as well as Storm-Z and Storm-V units, consisting mainly of prisoners recruits.

▪️Russian troops are trying to oust Ukrainian troops from positions at the Avdeevka coke plant.

▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces maintained their positions in Krynki on the eastern bank, despite Russian counterattacks in the area.

AFU counterattacked near Sinkovka, - ISW, situation at the front.

▪️Russian and Ukrainian troops fought positional battles west of Kremennaya in the Ternoy area and south of Kremennaya in the area of Dibrova and Serebryansky forestry.

▪️Battles also continue on the northwestern and southwestern flanks of Bakhmut.

▪️On December 20, Russian and Ukrainian troops continued positional counter battles on the border of the Donetsk-Zaporozhye region, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

▪️Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks west of Verbovoy, south of Rabotino, and west of Novopokrovka (northeast of Rabotino).

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening their positions and building new fortified areas.

- ❗️The Armed Forces of Ukraine are curtailing some operations at the front due to a reduction in aid and hunger, - Commander Tarnavsky.

Despite this, in certain areas of the southwestern direction, Ukrainian fighters were able to go on the offensive.

- Vice-Chancellor of Germany Habeck:

Unfortunately, there is a real danger that support for Ukraine will collapse. Germany must therefore be prepared to take on greater responsibility.

- The EU adopted the 12th package of sanctions against Russia.

It includes measures to make it impossible to violate previously imposed sanctions, as well as a ban on the import of Russian diamonds.

- The Ukrainian defense industry has produced about 50,000 FPV drones and plans to produce thousands of medium- and long-range attack drones.

Next year Ukraine will produce a million FPV drones.

If Ukrainian industry maintains production rates at 50 thousand units per month, in 2024 it will be able to produce 600 thousand drones.

- The Washington Post has removed a separate section “War in Ukraine” from its website.

- The EU for the first time allowed the confiscation of financial assets as part of sanctions against the Russian Federation, - EU Council.

- “This war will last for a long time. It can last for years,” - Hero of Ukraine Radish.

The Russians will never want to let Ukraine go, and any negotiations will only give them breathing space to build up their troops. It is up to us, our donations and the help of the front, how soon victory will come.

- GRU major asked for political asylum in the Netherlands

He expressed his readiness to appear before the International Criminal Court in The Hague and testify about Russian war crimes in 2014-2015 and 2022, including shelling of Donetsk in order to manipulate the sentiments of the population against the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

I want to tell the international investigation and court the facts of corruption, military aggression, crimes known to me, and reveal Putin’s illegal schemes for the invasion of Ukraine in 2014

- Forecast of Trump's decisions as president if he wins the election from Reuters

▪️Purge of personnel in the US security bloc, reshuffles in the Pentagon, State Department and CIA.

▪️Reducing military aid to Europe. Imposing trade tariffs on NATO countries unless they allocate at least 2% of their GDP to defense and NATO.

▪️Cessation of financial support for Ukraine.

▪️Decreasing trade volume with China.

▪️The beginning of negotiations with Mexico on the deployment of US special forces on its territory to fight drug cartels.

- Here is another good picture of how discount rates changed in Ukraine and Russia in 2022-23

- 77 American parts were found in the Russian Kinzhal missile

No comments.

- OSInt researcher Richard Vereker, who is counting destroyed Russian tanks by type, notes that the number of T-80 losses as a percentage has decreased significantly. At the very beginning of a full-scale war, their number fluctuated at 20% of the total, but in the summer of 2023 it exceeded 50%. As of now, the percentage of T-80 losses among Russian tanks is 30%. In his opinion, this trend means that the Russians are running out of T-80s, which can be easily restored, so that new supplies to the front will arrive much more slowly. Vereker also believes that a similar trend is visible among Russian infantry fighting vehicles - the Russians are depleting stocks that could be easily restored, and armored personnel carriers are increasingly appearing among the losses.

- The Russian military-industrial complex has the ability to produce and update approximately 100-150 main battle tanks per month, which is significantly ahead of Europe, said Secretary of State of the Latvian Ministry of Defense Janis Garisons.

- Aid to Ukraine from the United States will end on December 30, - Pentagon.

In fact, for the first time, the Pentagon has indicated the exact date when it will exhaust its funds to help Ukraine if Congress does not approve new funding.

- In Bucha, the construction of the first kitchen factory in Ukraine has been completed, which will prepare food for 30 surrounding schools and gardens in three communities.

This was announced by the First Lady of Ukraine Elena Zelenskaya, on whose initiative the factory was built as part of the school nutrition reform. On Monday, the President’s wife visited Bucha with Howard Buffett, who is a patron of the project.

- North Korea conducted a new test of an intercontinental ballistic missile

Dictator Kim Jong-in said the tests were a "clear signal to hostile forces."

- The manufacturer of black bags has a sense of humor

- Poland has 3 years to prepare for a possible confrontation with Russia, - head of the Polish National Security Bureau Jacek Seviera.

Tomorrow Duda is convening a meeting of the National Defense Council, where the new Prime Minister Tusk and members of his cabinet will attend for the first time. It is planned to discuss issues related to ensuring security and support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

- They demand that you tell your wife to shut up, - the chmoboks say that the FSB began to come to them at the front.

Followed by threats like “record a video saying that everything here suits you, or we will send you into an assault without a return ticket.”

Wow, how unpredictable 🤭

- The United States may send more air defense systems to Ukraine, - The Washington Post.

Japan is expected to change its policy this week by allowing the export of dozens of Patriot missiles to the United States, allowing Washington to transfer additional air defense capabilities to Ukraine.

- Actor Okhlobystin (“Goyda”) came under fire in Donbass

- Slovakia will block Ukraine’s entry into NATO, since this will be the beginning of the Third World War, - Prime Minister Robert Fico.

We said before the elections that it would be a problem for us if we are talking about (Ukraine's membership in) NATO [...] I believe that this will never happen. As long as I have the opportunity to influence the Slovak political scene, use the right to veto such a decision

- Ukraine is recognized as one of the most dangerous countries in 2024, - Independent.

Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, South Sudan, Central African Republic and Somalia are also considered the most dangerous countries.

The safest countries are Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Switzerland and Denmark.

- Putin has already lost the war with Ukraine because he did not achieve his main goal - to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth and absorb it - Blinken.

▪️This year has been difficult on the battlefield, but the Ukrainians showed incredible courage - they stood against one of the largest armies in the world.

▪️The United States has a clear strategic plan for the future development of Ukraine, which does not require significant allocation of funds at the current stage.

- 🇭🇺 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expresses concerns about the possibility that after Ukraine joins the European Union, his country will lose access to European financial resources

There is no doubt that if we had accepted Ukraine, then all the assistance provided to the countries of Central Europe, including Hungary, would have been transferred to Kyiv

- The United States and Europe doubt whether it is worth continuing to support Ukraine - Macron

We see that in Europe they are beginning to doubt. One senses that there are doubts in the United States as well

At the same time, the French President believes that Kyiv still needs support, since this allows European countries to “live in peace.”

- 😢 Bakhmut now

- Orban accepted Zelensky’s invitation to meet

This will be the firstthe smallest bilateral meeting between the heads of the two sides since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

- Mobilization: representatives of Housing Offices and OSBB can serve subpoenas, - Speaker of the Ground Forces Command Fityo.

▪️When changing place of residence, a person liable for military service has a seven-day period to register with the new TCC at the place of residence or work. If he did not do this, then he is a evader;

▪️The electronic register of those liable for military service “Obereg” will be synchronized with other state registers. When this happens, the TCC will see that the citizen was registered in Kyiv, but is now working in Lviv. Then there will be an appeal to the owner of his enterprise, and the manager will be obliged to personally deliver the employee liable for military service to the TCC;

▪️The gym and restaurant are public places. It is not prohibited by law to issue subpoenas there;

▪️At the moment, men aged 27 years and older are eligible for mobilization.

The Housing Office and the State Security Bureau will not issue subpoenas, - Bezuglaya.

This was spelled out in the future mobilization bill. But you should understand that it has not yet been accepted, everything can change.

- Ukrainian manufacturers are able to fully supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with armored vehicles. Vladislav Belbas, director of the domestic company Ukrainian Armored Vehicles, which produces Novator armored vehicles, spoke about this.

According to him, the car costs 20-30% cheaper than foreign competitors. With a long-term order, Ukrainian manufacturers are able to cover the need for armored vehicles on their own.

So far, the company has already supplied several hundred Novator armored vehicles to the defense forces. And recently they presented the Novator-2, capable of transporting a crew of ten military personnel. The armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armored Vehicles consist of 50% domestic components, which is a very high localization rate.

- Feel the difference, so to speak

- And before that we didn’t eat, we saved

- The son of the “hero” is 10 years old at most, but he has already been dressed in a military uniform, and from the expression on his face it is clear that he already knows exactly who he will be in the future. In fact, such families are a strategic mob. Putin’s resource, because this is what poor regions are needed for, people themselves will go to slaughter out of despair.

Whose life did he save? to yourself? children? wife? residents of Ukraine?

- Biological weapons in action. Now the beavers are in action

- Desire

- That’s it

- How does the tanker exchange rate affect the dollar exchange rate or “a knife in the back”

- Well, I once joked about prayer from drones 🤦🏼‍♂️

- Fur coats! They are more important

- Duntsova has become a very popular person in recent days. Not without problems, but I got on the list to vote for the President of the Russian Federation