Global warming on the brakes: the Arctic is not melting as quickly as expected (3 photos + 1 video)

Remember how we were all scared by global warming: supposedly the Arctic would melt faster than beer would heat up in the heat, the bears would be left without ice, and we would all drown in rising sea levels? And then nature decided to joke and dramatically slowed the melting of Arctic sea ice.





Scientists' jaws dropped in surprise, because despite heat records and CO2 emissions, the ice is holding on tighter than expected.

In a new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, a team of scientists led by Dr. Mark England of the University of Exeter (now at the University of California, Irvine) analyzed satellite data from 1979 to 2024.



It turns out that over the past 20 years (from 2005 to 2024), the September minimum of Arctic sea ice has been shrinking by only 0.35-0.29 million km² per decade - half as fast as the long-term trend of 0.78-0.79 million km². And the ice volume from 2010 to 2024 lost a paltry 0.4 million km³ per decade, compared to an average of 2.9 million km³ since 1979. This is the slowest rate in recorded history, 4-5 times lower than the peak melting in 1993-2012. And this is not a seasonal thing - the slowdown is visible all year round.



Why is that? Scientists blame "internal climate variability," which is natural fluctuations in the ocean currents of the Atlantic and Pacific, like multi-frequency cycles that bring colder water to the Arctic and slow down the melting. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 show that such pauses occur in 20% of simulations, even with increasing emissions. Without human influence, the ice would even grow, but global warming is still pressing. In short, without us, another mini-ice age would begin.

video-Global warming on the brakes

In the meantime, global warming is raging on the Arabian Peninsula. This time, strong and large hail fell on the 700,000-strong city of Taif in Saudi Arabia.

Scientists emphasize that this is not a reason to relax and continue burning coal, but a signal that it is time to act, to increase the budget there for research, well, so as not to allow an Arctic "ice age in reverse".

In general, people, the climate is a tricky thing, like your ex-girlfriend: it can give hope, and then hit you twice as hard. We follow the news and worry that the Arctic will not melt completely. Otherwise, the bears will come to visit us, and not in peace.