An asteroid may collide with our planet in 2032 (7 photos)
An asteroid is approaching that could destroy an entire city. 2024 YR4 is a recently discovered space object estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. According to National Geographic, the odds of it hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, are 1 in 53.
"There will be casualties. The asteroid will cause serious damage to people, buildings and even wildlife," said Simón Ángel, an astrophysicist and scientific director of the Manuel Foster Observatory in Recoleta, Chile. "No, not a 'global catastrophe' that wiped out all the dinosaurs, but it would still be significant for a city or region."
Experts say 2024 YR4 is worth keeping an eye on, but not "too worried."
"We calculated the probability of an impact based on just 45 days of observations," Angel added.
The next time scientists will be able to get more detailed information about the asteroid will be in December 2028, when it will be available for observation again. This will allow them to collect more data and calculate its trajectory.
The Asteroid Last Land Alert System (ATLAS) consists of four 0.5-meter telescopes, and it was the telescope in Chile that initially discovered 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024.
"It's a network of telescopes, fully automated, fully robotic, that are designed to detect small objects in the sky a short time before they hit Earth," Angel explained.
2024 YR4 is considered relatively "medium" in size, but its current trajectory is what's making headlines.
According to Scientific American, NASA has conducted the first ever Double Asteroid Redirection Test, also known as DART, which involves launching a spacecraft to deflect an asteroid from its intended trajectory.
Images taken by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope on October 8, 2022, show debris ejected from the surface of Dimorphos. The impact changed its motion. Before the impact, Dimorphos orbited the asteroid Didyma every 11 hours and 55 minutes, and after the impact, it orbited the asteroid every 11 hours and 23 minutes.
Regarding 2024 YR4, Angel mentioned that it might be possible to change its trajectory in 2028, once more data is available.
"If you change the orbit of this object, it will not hit Earth, but will pass at a safe distance," he said.
We'll have to wait another three years to learn more. And while that may be a bit worrying, the world has never been as safe from threats like this as it is now.